ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Market breadth is my preferred technical indicator for understanding short-term price action in the stock market. I track breadth using AT50, shorthand for “Above the 50,” which measures the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs). AT50 becomes most meaningful at its extremes. Readings below 20% define oversold conditions that historically create … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary Stock Market Commentary I am risk off in the coming week because market breadth failed twice at the overbought level. One failure is enough to make me cautious, but two tells me that the market is fighting too hard just to go higher. Moreover, earnings season is in full swing. For … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary Market rotation is improving participation, but a fresh warning from market breadth keeps me cautious. Small caps and defensives are attracting capital while tech weakness quietly undermines leadership. I remain neutral after AT50 reversed from overbought levels, issuing a fresh warning despite bullish index trends. The disconnect between strong indices and … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary Small cap stocks led a market breadth breakout, then faded just short of overbought, leaving me encouraged by momentum but wary of a near-term pullback. The S&P 500 ground to fresh highs, while the NASDAQ lagged by stalling at prior peaks. A clean breakout still awaits for the NASDAQ. CES-driven leadership … Read more
Stock Market Analysis Summary Mounting pressure on software stocks stands out as weakening market breadth coincides with multiple key technical breakdowns. A neutral stance remains appropriate as market breadth continues to deteriorate, offsetting selective AI-driven strength in semiconductors and small caps. Buying decisions stay highly selective, with technical confirmation guiding risk while bearish signals continue … Read more