Rio Tinto Admits Severity of Commodities Collapse By Slashing Dividend

It finally happened. Rio Tinto (RIO), a major producer of commodities like iron ore, has started to back off its generous dividend payout policy. In its latest earnings statement, RIO announced its total dividend for 2015 will come to 215 U.S. cents per share, the same as it paid out in 2014. Over the past … Read more

Alternatives to Fortescue Metal’s Nationalistic Fervor Over Iron Ore

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Now that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has cleared Andrew Forrest of violating laws against anti-competitive business practices, the CEO of Fortescue Metals Group (FSUGY) (FSUMY) wasted no time … Read more

Another Look At the Reinforcing Dynamics of the Iron Ore Industry

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 16, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Clyde Russell is a columnist who often writes about iron ore for Reuters. His latest piece, “Who’s behaving rationally in iron ore, steel? Everybody and nobody,” discusses some common themes and … Read more

Little Cliffs Natural Resources Still Talks Like the 900-Pound Gorilla

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 3, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) reported earnings last week on the morning of October 29, 2015. {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com From my perspective, the always colorful commentary from Chairman, President, and CEO Lourenco … Read more

Why Rio Tinto’s Latest Production Report Failed to Excite the Market

I keep looking for reasons to believe in a bottom for commodities. Recently, the big washout of sellers in commodity giant Glencore looked like such a signal. Upon closer examination, I decided that the bottom is more likely temporary than sustainable. The latest signal was the third quarter (2015) production report from Rio Tinto (RIO) … Read more

Glencore’s Correlation With Market Sentiment and An End to the Collapse In Commodities

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This quote is the entirety of a terse and pointed press release that commodity giant Glencore (GLCNF) (GLNCY) delivered to calm market fears about the company’s business. This release came … Read more

T2108 Update (October 7, 2015) – The S&P 500 Reaches Its Highest and Most Important Post-Oversold Close

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

There Goes the Rio Tinto “Exit Strategy”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 8, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Under pressure from investors, Glenore Plc (GLNCY), the world’s largest corporate player in the commodities market, recently announced a plan to slash as much as $10.2B in debt by offering additional … Read more

How to Trade the Change In Narrative and Momentum for Iron Ore

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) One of my tenets from the (revised) “Commodity Crash Playbook” is to respect momentum and trends in commodity trading and investing… {snip} Iron ore has become a fascinating case in point. … Read more

Bad Signs: The Australian Dollar Trips As Iron Ore Stumbles Over $100

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The miners of iron ore spent the last few years ramping up production capacity, and now they are ramping up production. The price of iron ore has steadily fallen in 2014 … Read more