ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The stock market presented mixed messages amidst ongoing volatility. While a “softer than expected” CPI report presumably triggered an initial fragile rebound, I see persistent underlying weakness. Apple Inc. (AAPL) represents this fragility with a continued bearish breakdown casting a shadow over the broader market. Apple Inc. (AAPL) declined 1.8% and confirmed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I used key indicators in late February to issue a red flag warning on the stock market. I used additional indicators to serve as caution even as I flipped to a bullish posture on the stock market last week. Now, a fresh indicator of caution has emerged in the form of an … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A DeepSeek dive stole the headlines from the Federal Reserve. At the same time, tariff headlines refused to go away. Assuming you have already gotten your fill of DeepSeek headlines, I will just summarize the drama by saying a Chinese start-up has apparently completely up-ended the economics of the AI universe. DeepSeek’s … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, I concluded that the stock market had reached “oversold enough” trading conditions. Last week confirmed an oversold low as market breadth rapidly broadened and supported an all-time high redux for the S&P 500. Yet, this revival comes with important caveats. Uncertainty looms over the Federal Reserve’s next moves even … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week started strong with Goldman Sachs (GS). Analysts there looked beyond the coming Federal Reserve meeting and hiked their year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4500. The index quickly moved half the remaining distance and opened the door for more price chasing by analysts before 2023 hits the halfway … Read more
Stock Market Commentary My bullishness waned with last week’s manic trading action. I called the resulting patterns choppiness toppiness to reflect a biding sense that the market is churning out some kind of lasting top. Still, under the surface of the churn is a fresh divergence. The stock market is full of digital lows and … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (8-month high) VIX = 32.5 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market looked like it was warming up from a period of cooling … Read more
AT40 = 61.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 43.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.9 (5-month low)Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s scramble for support worked last week as buyers and bulls put the bears on notice. However, the rally … Read more
AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #4)AT200 = 14.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 34-month low)VIX = 25.6 (no change!)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) Commentary On Tuesday night, basketball great LeBron James, now of the Los Angeles Lakers, experienced an … Read more
AT40 = 65.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.8 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The stock market is oozing with divergences as a result of global trade wars, especially the escalating spat between … Read more