From Loitering to Breakout: Stocks Look for Bad News Worthy of Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 21, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is officially in bizarro world. The stock market is breathlessly rallying in anticipation of rate cuts that will come … Read more

Housing Market Review (March, 2019) – A Recovery Straining Against the Data

Housing Market Intro/Summary In the January Housing Market Review, I described a pause in the bad housing data long enough to allow the stocks of home builders to rally sharply with the stock market. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was testing resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA); that moment turned out to … Read more

Above the 40 (March 29, 2019) – No Follow-Through for Stock Sellers Even As Bonds Fly for Safety

AT40 = 52.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2+ month low)AT200 = 42.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 13.7 Short-term Trading Call: bearish (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The previous Friday’s trading action provided delayed confirmation of my short-term bearish trading call. Last week delivered … Read more

A Big Bet On Home Builders As Seasonal Trade Winds Down

On March 25th, CNBC’s Fast Money discussed very active options trading in the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB). Call option volume was triple put option volume. Of note, some trader purchased 5000 April 12 $35 weekly calls with ITB trading at $34.60 and just under its 200-day moving average (DMA). That trader … Read more

Above the 40 (February 27, 2019) – A Lingering Waiting Game As Overbought Period Reaches Important Threshold

AT40 = 80.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd overbought day)AT200 = 45.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary And still the waiting game rolls along. News on the US-China trade front generated some excitement to start the week, … Read more