ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
It has been a while since I took note of the impact of economic numbers on the Australian dollar (FXA). For most of this year, I have instead been a lot more focused on what the Australian dollar, combined with the Japanese yen (FXY), might be saying about risk attitudes in financial markets. Today, I … Read more
AT40 = 66.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 1-day overbought) AT200 = 55.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.9 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary Flipping short-term bullish was fun while it lasted…all of two days. The Federal Reserve hiked interest … Read more
Australia just celebrated setting a (modern era) world record for the longest string of quarters without a recession. Yet Australia’s economic backdrop appears to be wavering. This week’s labor force survey could provide a critical point of relief or pile on yet more concern. Iron Ore’s Latest Plunge I begin with iron ore – Australia’s … Read more
Last week I registered my surprise at silver speculators rushing to increase net long contracts to near multi-year highs. This move happened ahead of what was expected to be a parade of Fed-speak clearing the path for a March rate hike. The surge stood out even more given gold’s surge did not bring net long … Read more
Perhaps the shift was not large enough. Perhaps it was the magnetism of the 50-day moving average (DMA). After the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its last meeting on monetary policy, the U.S. dollar index (DXY0) promptly weakened. The dollar closed the day marginally lower after trading for a small gain in the morning. … Read more
“The slowdown in aggregate demand contributes to the fall in inflation. Yet, exchange rate movements due to recently heightened global uncertainty and volatility pose upside risks on the inflation outlook. The Committee decided to implement monetary tightening to contain adverse impact of these developments on expectations and the pricing behavior.” – The Central Bank of … Read more
After watching Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren speak at the South Shore Chamber of Commerce in Quincy, MA, I concluded Rosengren did not intend to rock the stock market on September 9, 2016. Ironically, the market’s extremely low volatility and lofty levels make the market “vulnerable” to good news. Good news drove Rosengren’s upbeat … Read more
The referendum that punted the UK out of the European Union (EU), “Brexit”, is practically a forgotten memory for most people outside of Europe. For example, the aftermath of this vote now looks like an event that quickly shook out the most eager sellers in the stock market and thus paved a course for a … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 3, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off central bank action for August with a rate cut to a fresh record low of 1.50%. Financial markets were anticipating a cut with … Read more
Global bond yields are falling like rocks, many investors are paying governments to hold their money, and odds are increasing for more monetary accommodation from the major economies in the likes of the United Kingdom, the eurozone, and Japan. In the U.S., expectations for a rate cut have essentially been moved off the table. So, … Read more