Recession Risks Revealed in the “Disindependence” of the Federal Reserve

Major central banks typically cut interest rates in response to economic stresses; they ease when the data force them to do so. Some important exceptions in recent history happened 1) in 2016 when Mark Carney’s Bank of England cut rates as a cushion against the potential downsides of the pro-Brexit vote, and 2) when the … Read more

The Fed-Related Chart That Most Concerns the Stock Market

An on-going debate rages about whether or how fast the Fed should hike rates in 2019. Some even question the need for a rate hike in December. Indeed, the market has priced in a “only” a 65% chance of a rate hike next month. I say only because before the October sell-off and November’s weakness, … Read more

The Charts That Helped Fed President Rosengren Plunge the Stock Market

After watching Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren speak at the South Shore Chamber of Commerce in Quincy, MA, I concluded Rosengren did not intend to rock the stock market on September 9, 2016. Ironically, the market’s extremely low volatility and lofty levels make the market “vulnerable” to good news. Good news drove Rosengren’s upbeat … Read more

The S&P 500’s Latest Breakdown Echoes the Warning Signal From the August Angst

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) For a brief moment on January 15, 2016, the S&P 500 (SPY) looked ready to extend the sell-off that ended with the August Angst of 2015. At 1858, the index was … Read more