Reserve Bank of Australia Balks On Inflation – Dollar’s Rise Provides Fresh Shorting Opportunity

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The timing of The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate cuts is starting to look like a random number generator. In its latest statement on monetary policy (Nov 6th in Australia), … Read more

It’s Official – The RBA Is Working the Australian Dollar Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 30, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) It’s official – the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is trying to work the Australian dollar lower. In a surprise move, the RBA cut rates 50 basis points to 3.75%. Expectations … Read more

Federal Reserve Will Wait At Least Six More Months Before Raising Rates

For those people counting down to the first rate hike from the Federal Reserve, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley offered an interpretation of “extended period” for Susie Gharib of Nightly Business Report: “GHARIB: Bill, everybody wants to know what do you mean by extended period? Would you please define that for us? DUDLEY: … Read more

The Bank of England Confirms Weakness in the UK’s Economy and the Benefits of A Weaker Currency

Yesterday, the Bank of England left its interest rate at 0.50% and increased its program of quantitative easing by £25 billion to a total of £200 billion. The British pound immediately rallied on the news against all major currencies – apparently, analysts already expected the increase and were afraid the BoE might actually increase quantitative … Read more

Strong Currency Extends Bank of Canada’s Forecast for Full Recovery

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its exceptionally low interest rate of 0.25% and reiterated its commitment to hold rates this low until the end of the second quarter of 2010. This move stands in stark contrast to the rate increase implemented by Canada’s similarly resource-rich “G20 cousin” Australia just two weeks ago. … Read more

No New News on Negative Rates from Bank of England’s Meeting Minutes

This morning, the Bank of England released its minutes from the September meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. From my reading, it contained no new news on the prospects for negative interest rates. The “relief” from the minutes has so far lifted the pound against the euro, the U.S. dollar, and even the yen. I … Read more

Short the Pound Anyway

Last week, there was talk that the Bank of England would implement negative interest rates. I was all set to begin shorting the Pound (mainly versus the U.S. dollar), but the BoE simply maintained interest rates, made no changes to its quantitative easing program, and had nothing new to say. The Pound lifted in “relief”, … Read more