ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Gold, and by extension the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), has had a rough year. However, based on a historic flip in speculative positioning in gold futures, a bottom is likely in for GLD. According to the tweet and chart below, the net speculative positioning in gold recently went net negative for the first time in … Read more
AT40 = 47.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary I typically consider the market stretched to the downside when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving … Read more
AT40 = 63.1% ƒof stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 13.8 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I described how growing global trade wars are creating widening divergences in … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.0 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary Once again, a tried and true bearish signal delivered. However this success came with a tremendous caveat: a simultaneously … Read more
AT40 = 54.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary Source: My Daughter A week ago, I finally changed my short-term trading call: I went from neutral to cautiously bearish. When … Read more
AT40 = 55.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Commentary The stock market faded from bullish undertones and back into the resting position. Now we can just look back at what … Read more
At the beginning of the month I described what I called “maximum bearishness for silver.” For the first time in at least 10 years, speculators flipped net bearish on silver. At the same time, speculators remained quite bullish on gold. I decided to initiate a pairs trade going long iShares Silver Trust (SLV) calls and … Read more
For the first time since at least 2008, speculators flipped bearish on silver. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Speculative net contracts have trended downward for about a year and approached zero in December around the time the Federal Reserve last hiked rates. Yet, I did not think it was “possible” for positioning to go … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ended a 1-day overbought period AT200 = 62.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary It figures that just one day after the stock market finally crossed into overbought territory, it … Read more
Maybe it is fear of the Fed, maybe it is the distraction of cryptocurrencies reaching for infinity. Whatever the issue, speculators in precious metals are in rapid retreat as net long contracts dropped to levels not seen in 4 to 5 months. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders This decline represents the climax of October’s … Read more