T2108 Update (January 13, 2017) – The NASDAQ Shows Resolve While the S&P 500 Bearishly Grinds Away

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Important Lessons from the Trump-Inspired Breakdown For Gold

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 27, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has increased 6.3% since December 15, 2015. The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its interest rate the next day and made its second hike for this cycle … Read more

T2108 Update (December 15, 2016) – The S&P 500 Struggles to Return to Pre-Fed Momentum

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 14, 2016) – Market Momentum Hiding in Plain Sight

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Trump Change: The U.S. Dollar Swings Wildly from Election Despair to Elation

In my last post, I wrote about the small solace I took in profits on my short AUD/JPY position as the Japanese yen (FXY) surged in response to a looming victory by Donald Trump for the U.S. Presidency. At the time, I closed out the position assuming that currency bearishness was over-extended by quick-trigger negative … Read more

T2108 Update (October 28, 2016) – Divergences Weigh Further on the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Gold and Silver Face A Further Erosion of Support

A week ago, I laid out a case for a tradable bottom in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV). While both funds held up around 200-day moving average (DMA) support, speculators retreated further from net long positions in the latest CFTC data. Source: Oanda’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Net speculative longs in … Read more

Gold and Silver Bid for A Bottom In Wake of September Jobs Report

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On October 5th, I noted how SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both completed post-Brexit roundtrips as rumors of a eurozone tapering of QE triggered a fresh wave … Read more

Gold and Silver Break Down: A Post-Brexit Roundtrip Triggered By Eurozone Rumors

Gold and silver may have finally topped out. The first technical clues came after SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) reversed all its incremental gains form the post-Brexit trade. I used that event and other indicators to posit a top for gold in late July. GLD promptly bounced from that support level. A month later I reiterated … Read more

The Market’s Not Buying A September Hike But Gold Is Still Topping

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 28, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Going into the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, various “Fed heads” were interviewed about the prospects for the next rate hike. The chorus in the days and weeks before Jackson Hole … Read more