A Fresh Gold Versus Bonds Pairs Trade With the Dollar Playing Wildcard

It is hard to believe that just six weeks ago I proposed a pairs trade of gold versus bonds with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) toying with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) doing the same. Now, GLD has already hit the next line of resistance … Read more

Above the 40 (February 8, 2017) – The S&P 500 Slumbers Between Bullish Fund Flows and Bearish Divergence

AT40 Status: 53.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 66.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 11.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary As is so typical of this go-stop-stop stock market, this week started without immediate follow-through to a fresh all-time high … Read more

T2108 Update (January 19, 2017) – Inauguration Eve Draws More Bearish Divergence

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 13, 2017) – The NASDAQ Shows Resolve While the S&P 500 Bearishly Grinds Away

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Important Lessons from the Trump-Inspired Breakdown For Gold

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 27, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has increased 6.3% since December 15, 2015. The U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its interest rate the next day and made its second hike for this cycle … Read more

T2108 Update (December 15, 2016) – The S&P 500 Struggles to Return to Pre-Fed Momentum

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 14, 2016) – Market Momentum Hiding in Plain Sight

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Trump Change: The U.S. Dollar Swings Wildly from Election Despair to Elation

In my last post, I wrote about the small solace I took in profits on my short AUD/JPY position as the Japanese yen (FXY) surged in response to a looming victory by Donald Trump for the U.S. Presidency. At the time, I closed out the position assuming that currency bearishness was over-extended by quick-trigger negative … Read more

T2108 Update (October 28, 2016) – Divergences Weigh Further on the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Gold and Silver Face A Further Erosion of Support

A week ago, I laid out a case for a tradable bottom in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV). While both funds held up around 200-day moving average (DMA) support, speculators retreated further from net long positions in the latest CFTC data. Source: Oanda’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Net speculative longs in … Read more