ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary At the beginning of August, you might have looked uninformed predicting that the S&P 500 would end up printing its 4th straight monthly gain. At its lows, the index wiped out gains from the previous two months and almost reversed May as well. Now, the index hovers just below its all-time high … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A plunge in market breadth on Wednesday made me expect a more bearish take on the markets for my next blog post. A sharp rebound led by strong earnings from various retail companies, quickly changed the narrative from a continued NVDA hangover to a bullish divergence and then a bullish setup. Friday’s … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Downtrends are over. Bullish breakouts abound. Sellers got one chance last week to try to keep the cork in the bottle of the oversold bounce, but they failed. The stock market insisted on pushing right through. With little time to rest, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ ended the week with major … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: It took a mixed jobs report and soft economic data to spark late New Year’s cheer in the stock market. The December jobs report refreshed the message of a strong labor market whose unemployment rate has stayed between 3.5% and 3.7% the entire time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates. Yet, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market indices benefited from a strong 2021. year. However, under the surface, declining market breadth betrayed the bullish narrative for a wide swath of stocks. A disappointing start to the new year for the indices was even worse for those stocks already limping into the end of last year. The … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market breezed through August and now strolls into September. The S&P 500 breezed to a 2.9% gain for the month of August, its seventh month in a row of gains. The NASDAQ breezed even higher with a 4.0% gain for August. The stroll into September ignored the disappointment in the … Read more
The Follow-Through: Strong Start for Stocks The month of September enjoyed a strong start as last week’s fairy dust from J-Pow continued to work its magic. Short-term market breadth with AT50, the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs), also continuing higher while leaving behind the longer-term breadth indicator in AT200, the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Summer trading in the U.S. traditionally starts after the Memorial Day holiday weekend. The period typically features lower levels of liquidity and, accordingly, periods of listless trading interrupted by bursts of wild volatility. While the “sell in May and go away” adage is a poor trading strategy, August is the year’s most … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market got quite tricky last week. A day after buyers re-established control, sellers returned with a sustained fury. The selling on Thursday reflected the stock market’s split personality while the follow-up selling on Friday seemed broader. The pressure on the the stock market looks like an ominous setup for March … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 79.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #10 overbought) AT200 = 77.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (7 1/2 year high) VIX = 20.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the overbought stock market stretched for a … Read more