T2108 Update (June 14, 2016) – Volatility Soars Into Tests of Central Bank Resolve

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (June 10, 2016) – A Bearish Reversal for the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (June 8, 2016) – A Notable Post-Recession Breakout

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Blow-Off Top for Gold? Not Quite Yet…

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Speculators are now net long gold at levels that surpass the financial crisis of 2008/2009 and the major 2011 peak in gold prices. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Given this … Read more

T2108 Update (May 20, 2016) – Chopfest

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Fed Minutes Put A Bow On Earlier Fedspeak on Rate Hikes

“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June…Some … Read more

A Reluctant Market Nudges the Expected Timing for Fed Rate Hikes

The message is clear: the U.S. Federal Reserve WANTS to hike rates a few more times this year. Various Fed officials started this week with speeches and interviews discussing their desire to hike rates again as early as June and for a total of two or three hikes in 2016. The response is also clear: … Read more

T2108 Update (April 1, 2016) – Weighing the Prospects for a Fresh Market Lift-Off

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forex Critical: Sentiment Reaffirmed On the Pound and Australian Dollar

The following data cover the latest from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders as reported by Oanda from the week of Monday, March 21, 2016. From Oanada: “The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily based … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Beat A Major Retreat from Bearishness on the British Pound

A bottom for the British pound just got more likely. The latest data from the CFTC shows that net speculators beat a major retreat from net short positions against the British pound: Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders The chart shows that speculators have not held such small net short positions since the surge began … Read more