ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Drawdowns are an important part of trading and investing. For example, risk management is all about surviving drawdowns that could prevent you from receiving the rewards on the other side. In “How to Trade During the Stock Market’s Most Dangerous Months,” I use median and average maximum drawdowns as a measure of seasonal risks in … Read more
Stock Market Commentary In just three months, the stock market has transformed from fragile to fearless. Friday’s return to overbought territory, on the heels of another jobs report that beat “consensus expectations”, underlined the market’s fearless bullishness. The jobs report made imminent rate cuts even less likely. Along with that prospect, bond yields nudged higher … Read more
Stock Market Commentary This week brought a return of market calm across the stock market following a sharp but brief trade-induced shock. The episode began with President Trump’s threat of significant tariffs on Europe (and foreign-made iPhones), which rattled the market. However, that fear evaporated after Trump walked back his threats with a 90-day pause … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There are not enough superlatives in the dictionary to describe what happened today. We have borne witness to a multi-day, multi-week saga of economic warfare, tariff chaos, a rolling stock market crash – and now, an historic oversold bounce. President Trump has gone from tariffs, to tariff flexibility, to tariff reciprocity to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market fell into chaos all over again as the U.S. retaliated against China’s tariff retaliation, hiking tariffs up to 104%. This escalation halted a rally that started as solid follow-through from the bullish engulfing bottom from the previous trading day. The whipsaw action underscored the fragility of technical setups in … Read more