The Power of 100: Nike, Carmax, and Starbucks

I believe there is an old Wall Street adage that describes the inevitability of a stock hitting $100 once it gets “close enough” to that price level. One hundred is a nice round number, and it looks like a major (psychological) milestone. So when both Nike (NKE) and Carmax (KMX) suffered post-earnings pullbacks from around … Read more

Stock Market Rides Out A Trade War Anti-Climax – Above the 40 (December 13, 2019)

AT40 = 56.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary It appears China and the U.S. finally agreed on a Partial, Phase One Trade Deal. The bare bones basics on the deal consist … Read more

Roku Sellers: How to Trade If Insiders Are Preparing for a Top

Roku (ROKU) lost 3.9% on news of insider-selling and stopped just short of the all-time high set in early September.

The Stock Performance Roku (ROKU) is up an eye-popping 402% in 2019 year-to-date. ROKU surged off a 13-month low in December, 2018, and the run-up included three straight very positive post-earnings surges. The stock hit its closing all-time high at a stratospheric $169.86 on September 6, 2019. Soon after that milestone, competitive news from Apple … Read more

Housing Market Review (October, 2019) – Home Builders Wavering At the Edge of the Moment of Truth

Housing Market Intro/Summary The stocks of home builders are starting to fail their moment of truth. A Moment of Truth Looming Ever Larger On October 25th, the iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit a 21-month high that coincided exactly with a major multi-year peak and post-recession high from January, 2018. The sellers showed … Read more

Forex Critical: Another Key Test for the Turkish Lira

The U.S. dollar versus the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) is testing 200DMA support after drifting through 50DMA support.

In late August, I wrote about a bad turn for the Turkish lira. Over two months later, the lira is around the same price levels in USD/TRY and EUR/TRY – two key pairs for the lira – but the path to this point has featured plenty of volatility. From a technical perspective, USD/TRY is testing … Read more

Market Rally Narrows Into the Specter of A Bearish Divergence – Above the 40 (October 28, 2019)

AT40 = 59.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 13.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A Sufficient Resolution Seems about right. Just as I switch from a (cautiously) bearish stance to neutral, the stock market throws more definitively … Read more

Stock Market Slams Into October’s Average Drawdown In Two Days Flat – Above the 40 (October 2, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) confirmed its 50DMA breakdown with a 1.8% loss, but also closed well below its lower Bollinger Band.

AT40 = 39.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (intraday low at 34.5%)AT200 = 45.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 20.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Exit The selling today was so broad that even Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility … Read more

Stock Market Stalls At Overbought Threshold As Momentum Stocks Retreat – Above the 40 (September 13, 2019)

AT40 (T2108) has stalled perfectly at the overbought threshold of 70%.

AT40 = 67.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month high)VIX = 13.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Overbought Overrules Times like these remind me of the significance of the overbought line. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more

How to Use the Google Trend Momentum Check (GTMC) With Bitcoin Prices

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) continues to provide great data points for using Google Trends to assess the sustainability of significant price movements. So many milestones have occurred in such a short period of time that I decided to name this process: the Google Trend Momentum Check or “GTMC” for short. The latest example of the GTMC occurred … Read more

Bullard Busts the Myth of A Big Rate Cut for July

In recent days, market pundits have excitedly talked about the prospects of the Federal Reserve getting so dovish that it would be willing to make a bold statement with a rate cut of 50 basis points for the July 31st announcement on monetary policy. Such a move would be quite dramatic given the Fed has … Read more