Above the 40 (April 6, 2018) – Barbarians Posturing At the S&P 500’s Support

AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same … Read more

Forex Critical: Mexican Peso – A Breakdown and the End of A Trade

When I last wrote about the Mexican peso three months ago, I described the NAFTA-driven context surrounding the breakdown of USD/MXN below its 50-day moving average (DMA). I was still holding onto a long-standing short on USD/MXN. I managed to keep holding this short until Wednesday evening (April 4, 2018). Source: TradingView.com I closed my … Read more

Riding Renewed Market Sentiment, LGI Homes Soars Into A Strong Sales Report

The ink just dried on my last Housing Market Review. In that piece I lamented the on-going lagging performance of home builders and stagnating housing housing data, and thus concluded that it was time to call an end to the seasonal trade on home builders. Just two days later, home builders surged upward in sympathy … Read more

Above the 40 (March 29, 2018) – A Stock Market Bent Out of Shape But Not Quite Broken

AT40 = 38.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 42.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The bears did their best to spook the market, but they failed to break it down. The foundations felt wobbly for most … Read more

Materials Build On A Bearish Breakdown

This picture is exactly what I do not want to see as the stock market struggles to hold critical technical supports: a major index of economically-sensitive stocks confirming a breakdown of support at its 200-day moving average (DMA). The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) lost 1.3% on a day when the S&P 500 (SPY) … Read more