ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A week ago, I wrote “Simple Reasons to Like IBM Despite the Headwinds.” As I feared/suspected at the time, sellers stepped in at an important resistance level. In four quick days, International Business Machines (IBM) dropped like a rock and retested presumed support from the announced expansion of the buyback. I thought I would have … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
Yikes. Today was a particularly ugly day for Apple (AAPL) fans and bulls. The stock followed through on weakness from last week’s product event with a MAJOR bearish breakdown below critical support at the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs). This also takes AAPL below its “Icahn support.” (Nightly Business Report blamed news of a … Read more
For over two months, I have gained some valuable experience and lessons putting the formalized Apple Trading Model (ATM) into practice. I have experienced two main challenges: 1) balancing the sometimes conflicting messages of the ATM when using different amounts of historical data, and 2) plain old execution. For challenge #1, I have concluded that … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more
This chart review includes a follow-up from last week’s chart review of International Business Machines (IBM) and SolarCity (SCTY). International Business Machines (IBM) The potential hammer bottom I identified last week got follow-through, but it was too messy to trade. It took two days for IBM to close at a higher price than the high … Read more
International Business Machines (IBM) International Business Machines (IBM) experienced an unusually large post-earnings drop of 8.3% on April 19th. This was despite reaffirming its FY13 earnings guidance. After one more day of selling, it was off to the races. In less than a month, IBM had recovered all its post-earnings losses. The stock churned and … Read more
In previous pieces, I have noted how traders and investors continued to load up on call options on Apple (AAPL) despite its persistent decline off all-time highs (for example see “Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns and Sentiment Collide With Apple’s Recent Downtrend“). It seems sentiment has finally taken a dramatic turn commensurate with the dramatic turn … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more
Earnings announcements are supposed to reveal the fundamental strength (or weakness) in a company. The reaction to those earnings should indicate the underlying fundamentals of a company. Yet, there is no time like earnings where the contrast between the true fundamentals of a company and market sentiment can clash in the most dramatic fashion. Case … Read more