Above the 40 (February 8, 2018) – The Simple Stock Trades for the Latest Oversold Period

AT40 = 12.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (day 1 of the second oversold period in 4 days) AT200 = 39.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-year low) VIX = 33.5 (range from 24.4 to 36.2) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (with oh so many … Read more

Above the 40 (January 11, 2017) – A Market Soaring Back to the Edge of Overbought

AT40 = 69.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 63.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.9 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Last week, I complained about the stock market’s “rubber band” getting stretched. I claimed that AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more

Above the 40 (September 22, 2017) – Apple Falls from the Tree, the Stock Market Bends Without Breaking

AT40 = 63.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.6 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The stock market stubbornly held onto its bullish positioning despite the tumble of one of its biggest stalwarts: Apple (AAPL). AAPL … Read more

Above the 40 (September 15, 2017) – Another Missile, Another All-Time High for the S&P 500

AT40 = 60.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary North Korea launched another ballistic missile over Japan, this one with enough range to hit Guam. The general market response was … Read more

Above the 40 (June 23, 2017) – The S&P 500 Watches the NASDAQ Position for A Recovery

AT40 = 54.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Last week, the NASDAQ snatched the baton from the S&P 500 (SPY) and now looks poised to resume its … Read more

T2108 Update (December 23, 2016) – Caution Emerges As the Trump Rally Leans On the Santa Claus Effect for Rest

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 7, 2016) – The Major Overbought Breakout Arrives

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Bottoming Efforts: Deutsche Bank Follow-Through and First Solar Breakout

Deutsche Bank (DB) In early October, I pointed out the extreme in bearish sentiment on Deutsche Bank (DB) and the related overcrowding in bearish bets. After DB surged 14% off its latest all-time low, I decided to hold onto my call options which were a play on a bottom. So far, so good. DB printed … Read more

T2108 Update (September 23, 2016) – The S&P 500 Fails to Close the Deal On the Latest Bullish Case

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Setting Up the Next Pairs for Tesla Motors Versus Solar City

A little over two weeks ago I made the case for implementing a pairs trade on Tesla Motors (TSLA) long versus Solar City (SCTY) short. What unfolded from there rolled out according to my first scenario: SCTY continuing to sell-off and TSLA outperforming. Indeed, TSLA’s outperformance has returned to the all-time high level set earlier … Read more