ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Sentiment among homebuilders has been riding high. This month, the sentiment of homebuilders reached heights last seen during the bubble days. Builders have backed up this optimism with housing starts at post-recession highs. While these starts are STILL at levels considered recessionary in previous housing cycles, the trend continues to march upward and bullishly. There … Read more
Exactly 10 years ago, the Housing Market Index (HMI) hit 68. The HMI fell relatively quickly from there as the bursting of the housing bubble began in earnest. This month, the HMI hit 64, essentially a fresh 10-year high. This indicator of homebuilder sentiment has marched steadily higher since the trough in the Spring of … Read more
When Meritage Homes (MTH) lowered guidance on September 9, 2015, the nation’s seventh largest homebuilder blamed several factors: A delay in closing homes. This was the most concerning explanation because the company provided no further details on it. Increased labor costs. These costs impacted margins. The problem was particularly acute in MTH’s major markets of … Read more
Almost a month ago, I performed some risk management and trimmed my bulging portfolio of homebuilders by selling LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) (see “LGI Homes Is Now A Bit Hot To The Touch“). Since then, LGIH has chopped around and even came close to testing support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) on its way … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 28, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) While the S&P 500 (SPY) continues to languish in the aftermath of the flash crash and accompanying sell-off, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) is still up 5.7% for the year … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 10, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) I always get nervous when a rush occurs on a stock with a swell of late entrants to a good story. LGI Homes (LGIH), a homebuilder with a heavy concentration of … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) When I wrote “A Time To Sell Some Housing Stocks,” I could not have come close to imagining its timeliness. The current market sell-off since then has been so deep and … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) After regional homebuilder LGI Homes (LGIH) produced stellar earnings results earlier this month, I had high hopes for Century Communities (CCS) as well. CCS’s results for its second quarter were good, … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have spent a lot of time over the past four years touting the attractiveness of stocks in homebuilders. The ride has offered a lot of bumps along the way but … Read more
My case for managing risk by peeling back some of my holdings in homebuilders turned out to be quite timely. In what has become a near regular pattern for the iShares US Home Construction (ITB), sharp selling has quickly followed a strong run-up and rush of excitement in homebuilders. The sellers and bears are almost … Read more