ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Stock Market Commentary The stock market delivered a gift on Friday as I scrambled to de-risk following the Bank of Japan’s drama on monetary policy. I braced for selling into bearish pressure and instead was pleasantly greeted by a broad push higher for stocks from the open. After the dust settled on the day, I … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve’s latest pronouncement on monetary policy was supposed to provide the drama of the week. However, the stock market yawned and resumed the buying of the summer of love at the open of trading the next day. Enter the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to provide the real drama. The fireworks … Read more
Brutal Failure Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s “war of economic independence” has ended in a brutal failure. The president used his central bank to fight inflation with rate cuts and lost in spectacular fashion. This experiment with unconventional monetary policy severely devalued the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) and helped to generate massive inflationary pressures. The chart below … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks may have begun. In a list of debt ceiling winners and losers, Vox failed to list the stock market as one of the biggest winners. The lingering and residual angst accompanying the manufactured drama of the debt ceiling released its hold on the market’s bias to go … Read more
Bitcoin Uptrend Analysis The trend is a friend for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) again. All three of the major moving averages are pointing upward for Bitcoin. This synchronization of the 20-day moving average (DMA), 50DMA, and the 200DMA supports a buy-the-dip strategy after the big March breakout in the wake of the banking Panic of 2023. Assuming … Read more
“We are encouraged that inflation is declining, and we are seized with the importance of staying the course and restoring price stability for Canadians. Inflation is coming down quickly and is forecast to be around 3% this summer. The economy is expected to grow modestly even as inflation comes down. This is good news, but it is not job done.” “Monetary … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The Federal Reserve was an anti-climactic headliner last week. The Fed proceeded with a 25 basis points rate hike couched in words that suggested that inflation remained the Fed’s biggest concern. In the Q&A portion of the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell essentially downgraded the Panic of 2023 to the Speed Bump … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Unlike the prior week, last week was all about the fundamentals, and the fundamentals made a huge difference. After failing to break through picture-perfect resistance levels, especially the 20-day moving averages (DMAs) (the dotted lines in the charts below), the indices were left vulnerable to selling pressure. The pressure started with Federal … Read more
My idea for a trade on the U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) report seemed like a great idea last month. Up to that point, the market experienced sharp swings based on the directional gap between the actual inflation readings and expected inflation. I used the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s “nowcasting” to generate an approximate trading model. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The S&P 500 defended support at its 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time in 10 months. The index was down 1.7% at its lows where it pierced its 200DMA and looked ready to challenge its 50DMA. Buyers stepped in at that point and proceeded to reverse the entire loss on … Read more