ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary And so a bear market ends, for the S&P 500 at least. The stock market enjoyed a strong follow-through day supported by previous oversold conditions. To represent the most recent technical developments, I created a well-defined area for the bear market called the “area of agitation”. The S&P 500’s breakout above this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Investopedia defines the Santa Rally very precisely: “A Santa Claus rally refers to the sustained increases found in the stock market during the last five trading days of December through the first two trading days of January.” Based on this definition, Santa is failing…and just as the stock market risks a January … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Financial markets are supposed to act like discounting mechanisms which use the wisdom of the crowd to anticipate important events. The stock market stalled and then broke down ahead of the election. Excluding a last minute rush to buy on election day, I assumed the stock market might have a muted reaction … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 is down 4.1% month-to-date. This loss makes this month a below average September for a maximum drawdown and fulfills September’s reputation as one of the index’s three most dangerous months of the year. As I noted last week, August’s extreme drawdown significantly increased the risk of September being worse … Read more
As the Nigerian naira plunges in value, Nigerians are scrambling for ways to protect their purchasing power. In this modern era, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) offers the promise of a digital store in value. Accordingly, Nigeria has returned to the number one spot in the world for national share of searches taken by Bitcoin according to Google … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Just one day after stocks narrowly avoided bearish conditions, a looming end to this extended overbought rally brought the stock market right back to the edge. Market breadth is at its lowest point since the overbought period began over a month ago. This tension means that the market may become less willing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last month, the stock market seemed to conclude that the threat of inflation had all but disappeared. Given the resulting celebration is one of the key drivers of the current extended overbought rally, today’s report on December’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) took on some significance. So when CPI missed “expectations” on the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Signature stock market moments capped a remarkable year for the stock market. Two months of nearly relentless buying delivered a stunning 70% of the gains for the S&P 500 in 2023 after bulls exploded out of oversold trading conditions. Housing-related stocks soared even more as financial markets celebrate the presumed end of … Read more
Bitcoin Uptrend Analysis The trend is a friend for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) again. All three of the major moving averages are pointing upward for Bitcoin. This synchronization of the 20-day moving average (DMA), 50DMA, and the 200DMA supports a buy-the-dip strategy after the big March breakout in the wake of the banking Panic of 2023. Assuming … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Unlike the prior week, last week was all about the fundamentals, and the fundamentals made a huge difference. After failing to break through picture-perfect resistance levels, especially the 20-day moving averages (DMAs) (the dotted lines in the charts below), the indices were left vulnerable to selling pressure. The pressure started with Federal … Read more