Some Quick Implications As the U.S. Dollar Turns the Corner On Taper Fears Part Two

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The next statement on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve comes on December 18th. With taper expectations on the rise again thanks to the 204,000 jobs added in October, it … Read more

The Federal Reserve Leaves No Catalyst for A Dollar Breakdown…or Breakout

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 1, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. dollar (UUP) sold off steadily going into Wednesday’s (October 30, 2013) statement from the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. It has been a slow yet relatively steady grind lower … Read more

Demographics and Labor Flows Drive the Implications of the Labor Participation Rate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 22, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In his opening statement for his press conference following the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve, Chairman Ben Bernanke once again called out the influence of lower participation rates on unemployment… … Read more

Time to Watch the Forex Action Unfold: React, Not Anticipate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 26, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) It has been a week since the Federal Reserve surprised the globe when it backed off from its earlier tough talk about bond tapering. The U.S. dollar index (UUP) plunged in … Read more

T2108 Update (September 18, 2013) – A Surge Toward Overbought Territory

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly gap down to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other … Read more

The Plunge in Housing Affordability Raises the Stakes for the Federal Reserve

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 15, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) As markets worldwide await the Federal Reserve’s meeting September 17-18th, I imagine that housing will play a major role in the decision-making for monetary policy. Interest rates have risen sharply in … Read more

Mixed Bets On Emerging Markets Add to Divergent Responses to Higher Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) As markets head into a much anticipated Federal Reserve decision that should feature some resolution on the tapering question, I found it interesting to rewind the tape back to the recent … Read more

I Am Sticking With Gold: A Critique Of “The Golden Dilemma”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} When King uttered these words in his final Inflation Report as Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), there was no sudden surge in interest rates or sell-offs in financial … Read more

Market Mood Swings Toward An End to the U.S. Dollar’s Latest Rally

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Ordinarily, I would have called Wednesday’s (July 10, 2013) close on the S&P 500 (SPY) a stalemate that potentially signals a reversal in fortunes for the index. The flat close occurred … Read more

Forex Falllout From the Fed’s Latest Decision On Monetary Policy

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 20, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The Federal Reserve announcement sounded a bit like something former governor Mervyn King might say about the prospects for the Bank of England’s bond purchase program: {snip} I imagine believers … Read more