ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The U.S. Federal Reserve failed to hike rates in its June policy meeting just as expected. More importantly, the Fed left alone its projection of the appropriate policy path for 2016 at 0.9%. The Fed trimmed its expectation for 2017 from 1.9% to 1.6% and slashed 2018 from 3.0% to 2.4%. The “long run” dropped … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 14, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Google Trends continues to prove itself useful in assessing the potential for important turns in the direction of gold, specifically the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). On November 29, 2015, I wrote … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Speculators are now net long gold at levels that surpass the financial crisis of 2008/2009 and the major 2011 peak in gold prices. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Given this … Read more
“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June…Some … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
The following data cover the latest from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders as reported by Oanda from the week of Monday, March 21, 2016. From Oanada: “The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily based … Read more
What a difference a month makes. On February 19, the S&P 500 (SPY) was taking a brief rest from a sprint off oversold conditions. The market for Fed Fund Futures had priced away any rate hikes for all of 2016. Ever since then, expectations have risen ever higher. NOW, the market expects the next rate … Read more
I have become accustomed to a relatively predictable reaction to moves in the market’s expectations for rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Last week began in the wake of the market finally bringing its expectations for the next rate hike back into 2016. The cascade of impacts from there were predictable: a stronger U.S. … Read more
What a difference 19 months make. It was June, 2014 when Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney confidently warned financial markets that rate hikes could come earlier than implied at that time by the market. Less than a month later, the British pound (FXB) (or sterling) peaked against the U.S. dollar (DXY0). Peaks against … Read more