ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A little over six months ago, I made a bearish case for Acacia Communications (ACIA) and Twilio (TWLO) based on the way each company rolled out follow-on stock offerings and the market’s reactions to the selling. Since then, ACIA and TWLO have fully lived up to bearish expectations. ACIA is down 55.1% from its offering … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in March, 2017 for February, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the bottom of what turned out to be a very shallow pullback from a near 10-year high. The subsequent recovery has been grinding and slow, but ITB now trades above … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in February, 2017 for January, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was pressing against a near 10-year high. Uptrends in the 20, 50, and 200-day moving average suggested that “the coiled spring” was uncurling up and to the right. In March, ITB launched … Read more
Century Communities (CCS) just made a new all-time high and yet it is STILL a cheap stock. CCS sits at a 0.5 price/sales ratio, 1.1 price/book ratio, 10.7 trailing P/E, and 7.6 forward P/E. Home builders typically hit 1.0 price/book ratios at the BOTTOM of a recessionary cycle. The response to CCS’s latest earnings report … Read more
President Trump will address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night, February 28th. Traders will no doubt have notepads ready to jot down the latest corporate targets of Trump’s wrath and praise. Trump’s words and tweets move markets, yet recent impacts have not lasted and have even worked in reverse of expectations. It is … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in January, 2017 for December, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was rebounding strongly from a brief pullback from an earnings-driven 6-month high. I described the setup as a coiled spring. The coiled spring did not release to great effect, but earnings from … Read more
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Inc. (PLKI) is one expensive stock, especially for a (fried chicken) restaurant: trailing P/E of 36.2, forward P/E of 28.9, price/sales of 5.5, and price/book of 187.4. PLKI most recently reported 4.7% year-over-year revenue growth and -1.9% earnings growth. (Data from Yahoo Finance). According to briefing.com, year-over-year revenue growth has stagnated in … Read more
I have long been a fan of Century Communities (CCS) and regional home builders in general. When I took profits in April of 2016 on my accumulated CCS position, I timed the sale to coincide with the end of the seasonally strong period for home builders. CCS was also struggling to break through resistance at … Read more
I raise yellow flags when companies implement a secondary stock offering soon after going IPO, especially after the stock has experienced a massive run-up. I get even more worried when the majority of the shares are being sold by shareholders rather than the majority of proceeds going into corporate investments. Two recent IPOs have popped … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more