ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
In commodities, the time to get bullish is usually when prices are pressuring the industry and sentiment is persistently and deeply negative. The time to get bearish is usually when prices are skyrocketing, industry participants are celebrating wondrous fortunes, and sentiment is as euphoric as can be. Since I am long-term bullish on cocoa, I … Read more
Iron ore may have reached a new inflection point with a price rally coming to a halt in January and some related stocks consolidating near multi-year highs. When I last made an iron ore trade in September, 2017, I was responding to a surprise projection from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that suggested a … Read more
DexCom (DXCM) is a maker of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. Last week, the stock of the company cratered after Abbott Laboratories (ABT) received FDA approval of its competing FreeStyle Libre flash CGM. It is the first system that allows diabetics to check and monitor glucose levels without sticking themselves. In response to the news, … Read more
The downtrend for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) won out yet again. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The buyers looked particularly convincing for NIB’s latest 50DMA breakout. Yet, a 1-2 punch of a return of good weather results in Ivory Coast and a particularly aggressive crop production forecast from Rabobank killed the latest rally for NIB. … Read more
AT40 = 49.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.6 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The week started with the volatility index, the VIX, plunging to a 14-year low. I held onto my put options … Read more
With the technicals on the stock market weakening ever so subtly, I concluded that now might be a good time to lock in the rest of my profits on the seasonal trade on home builders. However, an upgrade from RBC on Toll Brothers (TOL) breathed new life into the home builder rally. TOL benefited mightily … Read more
AT40 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.3 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary From a technical perspective, my last “Above the 40” post made as detailed a case as I can make to … Read more
AT40 Status: 65.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 70.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 11.7 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The struggle for the overbought threshold continues. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 22, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, March 17, 2016, Jefferies analyst Andy Barish downgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to a sell from neutral and cut his price target from $390 to $360. {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com … Read more
Source: Nightly Business Report Portfolio manager Gregg Abella of Investment Partners Asset Management was placed in the uncomfortable position of having to explain these picks he recommended almost nine months ago. His over-weighting in oil really hurt. Abella is also the analyst who brought Memorial Production Partners (MEMP) to my attention. It was a pick … Read more