A Stock Market Floating Precariously – Above the 40 (May 24, 2019)

AT40 = 34.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Bearish resistance won the trading battle the previous week. Last week, sellers did their best to follow-through. It was a week of chop … Read more

Forex Critical – The British Pound Moves On: Out With May, In With Hope

Tears In May Three weeks ago, I wrote about my skepticism about the strength of the British pound (FXB) in the wake of a resounding political defeat for the Conservatives. Brexit-related moves in the pound have proven fleeting and this time was no different. The pound peaked right after that post, but the persistent nature … Read more

The Dow Jones Industrials’ Unimpressive 5-Week Selling Streak Could Become A Meaningful Prelude

The CNBC headline sounds scary: “Dow rises nearly 100 points, but posts longest weekly losing streak since 2011“. It sounds like sellers have gripped the stock market! Normally, I ignore the Dow Jones Industrial because it is meaningless as an unrepresentative price-weighted index, but I could not ignore this headline. At first blush, I thought … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Paves the Way to A Rate Cut and Currency Markets Yawn

For weeks and longer I read key pundits write about the need for rate cuts in Australia. I was quite skeptical: I even concluded in February that a rate cut was NOT imminent. In a move that surprised me, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe effectively promised an imminent rate cut in … Read more

A Show of Confidence: PulteGroup Reloads Buyback As Stock Hits Key Tests

Despite the seasonal trends working against PulteGroup (PHM), the company last week announced a major reload on its buyback program. PulteGroup increased its authorization from $262M to $762M. The quote in the press release emphasized how this action, along with other investments, expresses the company’s solid confidence in the business and the housing market: “Driven … Read more