ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
It is hard to believe that just six weeks ago I proposed a pairs trade of gold versus bonds with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) toying with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) doing the same. Now, GLD has already hit the next line of resistance … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in January, 2017 for December, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was rebounding strongly from a brief pullback from an earnings-driven 6-month high. I described the setup as a coiled spring. The coiled spring did not release to great effect, but earnings from … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in September for August, 2016. At that time, iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the tail-end of an extended sell-off. I noted the irony of the acceleration of selling in the wake of a new home sales number that was the second-highest of this post-recession period. … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
In my last post, I wrote about the small solace I took in profits on my short AUD/JPY position as the Japanese yen (FXY) surged in response to a looming victory by Donald Trump for the U.S. Presidency. At the time, I closed out the position assuming that currency bearishness was over-extended by quick-trigger negative … Read more
A week ago, I laid out a case for a tradable bottom in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV). While both funds held up around 200-day moving average (DMA) support, speculators retreated further from net long positions in the latest CFTC data. Source: Oanda’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Net speculative longs in … Read more
The creep toward a December rate hike continues. The 30-Day Fed Fund Futures now show a 69.5% chance of a rate hike in December by the U.S. Federal Reserve. This is a full 11.1 percentage points above the odds in the wake of the Fed’s September 21st pronouncement on monetary policy. Source: CME FedWatch The … Read more