Above the 40 (January 11, 2019) – A Stock Market of Parallel Exhaustion and Breakouts

AT40 = 52.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (4-month high)AT200 = 22.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (4-week high)VIX = 18.2 (5-week low)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The major indices are still showing signs of exhaustion, but the sellers have yet to wrest back control … Read more

Above the 40 (January 9, 2019) – Stocks Make Important Breakouts Even As Indices Face Major Tests

AT40 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1-month high)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (3-week high)VIX = 20.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Just as the last oversold period exceeded expectations to an extreme downside, the rebound out of the oversold period is … Read more

Above the 40 (January 4, 2019) – The Oversold Chronicles End As A Fed-Inspired Stock Market Explodes Higher

AT40 = 20.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 13 days in oversold territory)AT200 = 14.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 21.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary All oversold periods must end – it is just a matter of how and … Read more

Above the 40 (January 2, 2019) – A Fighting Start for Stocks Gets Apple Pie in the Yen

AT40 = 11.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #12)AT200 = 12.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 23.2Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary $AUDJPY $AUDUSD $GBPJPY flash crashed. Could this ALL be #forex fallout from $AAPL revenue warning!?! pic.twitter.com/WZS10wj7D9 — … Read more

Fun With Numbers: Daily Trading Patterns for the S&P 500

Back in 2012 and 2013, I wrote pieces describing some interesting daily trading patterns in the S&P 500 (SPY). The effects looked big enough to matter. In particular, Mondays and Tuesdays showed outsized performance differences from other days in the week. The performance divergences were very large in the first 5 months of 2013 as … Read more