Silver Speculators Stand Firm Despite Poor Price Action

Last week I registered my surprise at silver speculators rushing to increase net long contracts to near multi-year highs. This move happened ahead of what was expected to be a parade of Fed-speak clearing the path for a March rate hike. The surge stood out even more given gold’s surge did not bring net long … Read more

Above the 40 (March 8, 2017) – A Quiet Pre-Fed Breakdown for the Stock Market

AT40 = 43.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Times like these really put AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to … Read more

Silver Speculators Slam Into Fed’s Plan for A March Rate Hike

The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) made a major peak last summer when it hit a 2-year high. The rally year-to-date seemed to come to an abrupt end when SLV plunged through support at its 200-day moving average (DMA) and its 20DMA uptrend. Source: FreeStockCharts.com However, don’t tell speculators any sad tales about silver. Speculators increased … Read more

T2108 Update (November 14, 2016) – Market Momentum Hiding in Plain Sight

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 1, 2016) – Divergences Confirmed: Stock Market Sags to the Edge of Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (October 28, 2016) – Divergences Weigh Further on the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Gold and Silver Face A Further Erosion of Support

A week ago, I laid out a case for a tradable bottom in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV). While both funds held up around 200-day moving average (DMA) support, speculators retreated further from net long positions in the latest CFTC data. Source: Oanda’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Net speculative longs in … Read more

Gold and Silver Bid for A Bottom In Wake of September Jobs Report

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On October 5th, I noted how SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both completed post-Brexit roundtrips as rumors of a eurozone tapering of QE triggered a fresh wave … Read more

Gold and Silver Break Down: A Post-Brexit Roundtrip Triggered By Eurozone Rumors

Gold and silver may have finally topped out. The first technical clues came after SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) reversed all its incremental gains form the post-Brexit trade. I used that event and other indicators to posit a top for gold in late July. GLD promptly bounced from that support level. A month later I reiterated … Read more

The Market’s Not Buying A September Hike But Gold Is Still Topping

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 28, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Going into the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, various “Fed heads” were interviewed about the prospects for the next rate hike. The chorus in the days and weeks before Jackson Hole … Read more