Above the 40 (April 24, 2017) – The Stock Market Breaks Out With A French Fly

AT40 = 61.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 63.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Going into the first round of the French Presidential election, I figured the best case scenario was the absence of … Read more

Indicating Market Fear? Keeping Perspective On the Surging Interest In World War III

On April 17, 2017 volatility expert Steven Sears wrote an article in Barron’s called “Profiting From the Stock Market’s Latest Fears.” In this piece, Sears recommends that long-term investors take advantage of rising market anxieties by selling put options. The most nervous investors can cope by “…stockpiling cash and buying some bullish call options to … Read more

Eyeing the Stock Market Disconnect As Optimism Keeps Blocking Bears

Nice Save Bears have taken numerous shots yet the bulls have consistently blocked them all. The S&P 500 (SPY) is barely off its all-time highs and has survived all number of setbacks. These setbacks seem to get more and more shallow. Monday, April 3rd, 2017 delivered another classic example. The morning began with very convincing … Read more

Above the 40 (March 20, 2017) – Stock Market Returns to Regularly Scheduled Programming

AT40 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 61.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.3 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40, I pointed out a surprising and mild bullish divergence. Like so much else in … Read more

Toppy Tesla

In early January, Tesla Motors (TSLA) confirmed its breakout from resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA). At that point, I got bullish on the stock from a swing trading perspective. That bullishness came to a screeching halt today. On September 4, 2014, Tesla Motors (TSLA) reached an all-time closing high of $286.04/share. The stock … Read more

A Stock Market Positioned to Win A Battle of Sentiments: Taxation Versus Economic Optimism

On August 20, 2015, I wrote “A Broad and Bearish Breakdown for the Stock Market” that described a converging set of indicators which flagged short-term bearish conditions in the stock market. The post happened to precede the August, 2015 flash crash by two trading days. It was one of those moments when the technicals worked … Read more

A Potentially Ominous Sentiment Shift for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest data on speculator forex positioning showed a sudden and abrupt change in sentiment on the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip} If this sharp drop in net longs turns into net … Read more

Brexit Fear Recedes And Creates A New Trading Opportunity

At the time of writing, currency markets opened trading this week with Brexit fear continuing to recede in the form of a big gap in favor of the British pound (FXB). Google Trends shows that on Friday, search interest in Brexit took a big step back (down 17%). This move confirms the apparent change in … Read more

Celebtrating Apple’s New All-Time Highs with Four Reasons for Caution

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 30, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) In early May, soon after April earnings, I presented a case predicting Apple’s stock would hit fresh all-time highs. This was essentially a follow-up to a piece a year prior predicting … Read more

Glencore’s Correlation With Market Sentiment and An End to the Collapse In Commodities

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This quote is the entirety of a terse and pointed press release that commodity giant Glencore (GLCNF) (GLNCY) delivered to calm market fears about the company’s business. This release came … Read more