Chart Review: Amazon.com Triggers Post-Earnings Short, Freeport Hits QE2 Price, Cliffs Hits 200DMA

Amazon.com (AMZN) The day after Amazon.com (AMZN) reported earnings, it soared in typical fashion after faking out traders with a lower print. I was able to once again execute the post-earnings AMZN trade successfully. It has been all downhill for AMZN since then. On Tuesday (August 13) the stock finally closed below the intraday low … Read more

Take A Pause From Your Deflation Fears and Consider Some Counter-Evidence

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 25, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Swiss franc (FXF) has started another weakening phase, putting an exclamation point on the currency market’s refusal to go along with the shrill, recent headlines claiming another deflation cycle has … Read more

T2108 Update (December 10, 2012): Still Creeping Upward

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

T2108 Update (December 5, 2012) – Indecision, A Crushed Apple, And Falling Copper

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

Using the QE2 Reference Price To Buy Freeport-McMoRan

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 10, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip}…I want to demonstrate how well last year’s playbook has worked for Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) (so far!). One of the rules from the playbook states: “QE2 (the second … Read more

2012 Has Delivered Some Attractive Bargains In Commodities

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodity stocks have generally underperformed the stock market in 2012. I still cannot decide whether this weakness represents a leading indicator of broader weakness to come or a fortuitous relief to … Read more

2012 Will Begin with Several Candidate Trades for the Commodity Crash Playbook

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 28, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Federal Reserve’s second phase of quantitative easing (QE2) is slowly becoming a distant memory…{snip} The stark contrast between winning and losing stocks (S&P 500 index versus many commodity stocks) leaves … Read more

A Review of the Commodities Crash Playbook As Another Phase of Selling Ends

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodities across the board have suffered mightily during the stock market’s recent correction. In the first phase of the sell-off (from late July to early August), a few commodity-related stocks triggered buys by erasing all … Read more

Chart Review: Google Hits Resistance, Freeport Mcmoran Makes New 2011 Lows

Many technology stocks have rebounded sharply off their August lows. Stocks like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) have even managed to register fresh all-time highs in the past week. On the other hand, Google (GOOG) has gone nowhere in about two years and now faces overhead resistance yet again. In today’s trading, GOOG was turned … Read more

Genesee and Wyoming Further Diversifies By Hauling Copper

(Hat tip to a friend of mine who passed along this news to me and highlighted its significance). On Thursday, Sept 1, Genesee and Wyoming Inc (GWR), finalized its acquisition of Arizona Eastern Railway (AZER) from Iowa Pacific Holdings, LLC of Chicago, IL. GWR paid $90.1M in cash. GWR is a diversified railroad company operating … Read more