T2108 Update (November 28, 2014) – A Potentially Bearish Retreat from Overbought Conditions As Commodities Swim A Sea Of Red

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Market Trends Continue To Swirl Inconsistently Around Rising Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The mixed signals from financial markets continue as interest rates continue to climb. In fact, the steady rise in rates is the main feature within a swirl of inconsistent patterns. The … Read more

Time to Pare Back Bullish Positions In the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost two weeks ago, I noted that as long as the Australian dollar (FXA) maintained its stubborn strength, it made sense to play the currency long versus the weakening Japanese yen … Read more

The QE2 Reference Price Identifies the Strongest Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Plays

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, I demonstrated how the timing of QE2 provided a useful reference point for buying Freeport-McMoran (FCX) as part of a coming revision of the commodity crash playbook. In this … Read more

BHP’s Price Warning Brings the Commodity Crash Playbook Back In Focus

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) BHP Billiton (BHP) Chairman Jacques Nasser raised eyebrows in a discussion with reporters on Wednesday, May 16th when he indicated that commodity prices are likely to keep falling for now: “The … Read more