Above the 40 (May 15, 2018) – Buyer Reluctance and Stock Market Exhaustion

AT40 = 59.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Here we are again…again. In the last Above the 40 I observed “the stock market looks like it is breaking free, but … Read more

Chart Review: Stock Market Fades Weigh Heavily On ACIA, MTCH, UPS

The S&P 500 (SPY) opened the trading day strong but spent the rest of the day fading to a much smaller gain. (The percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), T2108 (AT40), ended the day with an ominous loss that leaves it hanging below the 70% overbought threshold). This near day-long … Read more

Intel Post-Earnings: Current Options Pricing Vs. Historical Performance

Over the last two earnings reports, Intel (INTC) experienced historic 1-day gains. For January earnings that reported on Q4 results, INTC enjoyed a 10.7% gain the next day. For October earnings that reported on Q3 results, INTC enjoyed a 7.4% pop. These 1-day post-earnings gains were Intel’s 3rd and 7th highest 1-day post-earnings gains since … Read more

A Busted Seasonal Trade for Home Builders

The seasonal trade on home builders for 2017/2018 showed its first sign of trouble when the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) fell sharply off its 10+ year high in January on the same day the S&P 500 (SPY) set a new (and its last) all-time high. Almost two weeks later, in early February, the under-performance … Read more

Another Bitcoin Bottom Comes with An Important Signal

NOW this is getting really interesting. I am still in learning mode on cryptocurrencies. Every twist and turn is like a new flower patch around the bend. When I last wrote about the price patterns in Bitcoin a week and a half ago, I gave a qualified call for a bottom in the price of … Read more