Above the 40 (March 8, 2017) – A Quiet Pre-Fed Breakdown for the Stock Market

AT40 = 43.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Times like these really put AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to … Read more

Above the 40 (March 3, 2017) – The S&P 500 Marches Confidently Toward the Next Rate Hike

AT40 = 57.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 67.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary So March it is then! In reaction to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at The Executives’ Club of … Read more

The Trump Volatility Trade: Nordstrom, Intel, Cognizant Technology, and Biotech

President Trump will address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night, February 28th. Traders will no doubt have notepads ready to jot down the latest corporate targets of Trump’s wrath and praise. Trump’s words and tweets move markets, yet recent impacts have not lasted and have even worked in reverse of expectations. It is … Read more

Above the 40 (February 9, 2017) – The S&P 500 Celebrates “Phenomenal” Tax News

AT40 Status: 58.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 68.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 10.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary “We’re way ahead of schedule, I believe. And we’ll be announcing something, I believe, in the next two or three … Read more

“The T2108 Update” Becomes “Above the 40”

I have heard you loud and clear: it is time to part ways with the T2108 brand. T2108 is a daily technical indicator provided by TC2000, a stock charting program created by Worden Brothers, Inc. T2108 represents the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs). My former trading mentor, TraderMike (now … Read more

T2108 Update (January 13, 2017) – The NASDAQ Shows Resolve While the S&P 500 Bearishly Grinds Away

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Let 2016 Be the Year The January Barometer Died

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 9, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) Two years ago, I wrote “The Problem with the January Barometer.” {snip}… the January barometer failed one more time with 2016 delivering a stellar 9.5% gain. Hopefully, 2016 helps put the … Read more

T2108 Update (December 19, 2016) – The S&P 500 Makes A Feeble Return to Overbought Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 10, 2016) – Trump Trades: Divergences and Rotations

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Bottoming Efforts: Deutsche Bank Follow-Through and First Solar Breakout

Deutsche Bank (DB) In early October, I pointed out the extreme in bearish sentiment on Deutsche Bank (DB) and the related overcrowding in bearish bets. After DB surged 14% off its latest all-time low, I decided to hold onto my call options which were a play on a bottom. So far, so good. DB printed … Read more