Above the 40 (January 18, 2019) – Index Breakouts Propel the Stock Market Into Overbought Territory

AT40 = 76.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day overbought)AT200 = 27.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (6-week high)VIX = 17.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I noted in my last post that the signs of exhaustion in the major indices gave way to more … Read more

Above the 40 (January 11, 2019) – A Stock Market of Parallel Exhaustion and Breakouts

AT40 = 52.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (4-month high)AT200 = 22.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (4-week high)VIX = 18.2 (5-week low)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The major indices are still showing signs of exhaustion, but the sellers have yet to wrest back control … Read more

Forex Critical: A Roiling Market Finally Shakes the Turkish Lira

In 2018, the Turkish lira experienced significant selling pressure. At one point in August, the currency went parabolic. USD/TRY gained as much as 34% in just three trading days from August 8th to the 12th. On August 13, 2018, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) responded with a laundry list of measures … Read more

Above the 40 (January 2, 2019) – A Fighting Start for Stocks Gets Apple Pie in the Yen

AT40 = 11.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #12)AT200 = 12.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 23.2Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary $AUDJPY $AUDUSD $GBPJPY flash crashed. Could this ALL be #forex fallout from $AAPL revenue warning!?! pic.twitter.com/WZS10wj7D9 — … Read more

Above the 40 (December 26, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Stock Market Delivers Major Reprieve for the Post-Trump Reversal

AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more