ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same … Read more
AT40 = 60.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I call it a mini panic dip. Political news roiled the stock market for a brief moment, a grand 30 minutes … Read more
AT40 = 47.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.4 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) failed to follow-through on Thursday’s snapback rally, but a bullish divergence kept the short-term prospects looking good. … Read more
There is nothing like a significantly stronger currency to get central banks to take pause. I cannot recall in recent memory a time where a little known (or under-appreciated?) Deputy Director of the Bank of Canada made a notable impact on the Canadian dollar. Such an event occurred on Monday, September 18th. Deputy Director Timothy … Read more
A little over a week ago, I explained why I put the Mexican peso and the Canadian dollar (FXC) on shorter leashes. Canada’s extremely strong second quarter GDP report at the end of August just loosened that leash a little. Statistics Canada reported 2Q real GDP growth of 1.1%. The annualized growth rate of 4.5% … Read more
What a difference three months makes. On May 18th, I wrote “Trading Panic: Rushing Past the Exit from Brazil” to explain why I bought the big dip in iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) after Brazilian President Michel Temer was accused of bribery. I greatly under-estimated the upside opportunity at the time, and I find … Read more
The latest CFTC data on the Commitments of Traders (CoT) showed some key trends continuing: new heights of bullishness on the Australian dollar (FXA) and the Canadian dollar (FXC), and on-going depths of bearishness for the Japanese yen (FXY). Speculators increased net longs on the Australian dollar for the 8th week in a row. Speculators … Read more
AT40 = 63.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.6 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The stock market had a relatively bland day that matched a relatively bland statement on monetary policy from the … Read more
The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), … Read more
A year ago, speculators accumulated net long contracts on gold that exceeded anything seen since at least 2008. Starting in late 2015, silver speculators set several such records with the latest set just three months ago. Now, speculators in gold and silver are in full retreat. Net longs seem headed for zero for both precious … Read more