Breakout

Still On Breadth’s Edge of A Breakdown – The Market Breadth

AT50 (MMFI) closed at 41.4%, holding barely above its prior low, showing short-term market breadth remained fragile at breadth's edge.

Stock Market Commentary The stock market started the week in familiar melt-up mode, supported by a (temporary) thaw in the economic war between the U.S. and China. Optimism persisted until the Federal Reserve weighed in with its latest announcement on monetary policy, when Chair Jerome Powell balked at the idea of a December rate cut. … Read more

What Happened in the Housing Market? – Government Shutdown

What Happened to the Housing Market

Housing Market Intro and Summary This edition of “What Happened in the Housing Market” is truncated because the shutdown of the Federal government prevented the release of data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Census Bureau is responsible for reports on housing starts and new home sales. The remaining data in this month’s post depicts … Read more

The Next Market Melt-Up: Big Winners and Sorry Stragglers – The Market Breadth

next market melt-up - big winners and sorry stragglers

Stock Market Commentary The protracted shutdown of the U.S. Federal government has dragged past three weeks and Federal workers have now missed their first paychecks of this battle. The stock market rallied to an all-time high when the shutdown started, and it certainly seems to care even less after recovering from a 1-day mini panic … Read more

Market Breadth Remains Broken: The Final Convulsions Before the Stock Market’s Next Melt-Up?

market breadth remains broken - the final convulsions before the stock market's next melt-up

Stock Market Commentary Last week’s trading had something for almost everyone: volatility, churn, recovery, and a bank scare. A familiar story about renewed U.S.–China trade tensions expanded into a larger mosaic of market stress and resilience. Still, given market breadth remains broken, I see a market skating on the edge. The volatility index (VIX) summarizes … Read more

In Search of Reasons to Hold Advanced Micro Devices

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) soared on news of a big deal with OpenAI but has yet to close at a new all-time high.

Exactly one month ago, I explained I would stick with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) despite disappointing weakness in shares. I looked through the short-term bearish signal of a technical breakdown (below the 50-day moving average (DMA)) and pinned my expectations on AMD continuing to catchup with a red hot, AI-driven semiconductor industry. When AMD soared … Read more