ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Traders switched up sentiment in the stock market with a flash. After struggling under the shadow of the bear for nearly two weeks, buyers made a bullish dash for stocks. The major indices flipped from key fades at critical resistance to convincing slices through key resistance. The broad based buying put a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Good employment news came in the form of the May jobs report. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6% while the U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs. Both the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate are essentially back to the pre-pandemic levels of February, 2020. The labor force participation rate remains 1.1% … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: With the prospects of a bottom for this bear market, I am getting a little more interested in individual stock narratives. The bear market rubble is extensive. The gems are dispersed across a wide area. These stock charts provide one framework for sifting through the trash and the opportunity. {note: in this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary After 8 weeks of downward selling pressure, it is hard to pivot thinking on the stock market. Yet, the technical situation requires just such a switch. While the first oversold dip of May was unconvincing, I did flip (cautiously) bullish after the stock market closed oversold for the first time in 519 … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: “The U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong, despite recent mixed data. Recent developments have increased the risk of a future adverse outcome. Our fortress principles are designed to withstandany operating environment.” JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM), Investor Day 2022, Firm Overview, page 12 Starting from oversold conditions, the market was looking for … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reminded the market one more time about the Fed’s determination to fight inflation with normalized monetary policy, and the market cared for the briefest of moments. After the anti-inflation dust settled, the major indices closed trading on a strong note. For example, the extended oversold period came … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Some stocks benefit greatly from an oversold bounce. Some stocks continue to dampen the mood. Today, retailers bruised an otherwise impressive continuation of the oversold bounce in the stock market. With retailers weighing down the market with poor implications for the macro environment, caution remains warranted. Still, the rebounds in the most … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After much resistance to Fed hawkishness, the U.S. stock market gave way to fresh bearishness. The major indices dropped into new depths of the bear den. The stocks below are snapshots of the latest deterioration in the price action and decline in the technical health underlying the stock market. The ARK funds … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Inflation is everywhere in the global economy, and inflation will hang around for some time to come. The inflation problem is so bad that the Federal Reserve does not think inflation will return to its 2% target for another three years. While economists and pundits debate about how long inflation will last, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Forget recession fears. Forget an aggressively hawkish Fed. Forget the stock chart holdouts. Bullish belief delivered another powerful confirmation of what has become an exceptionally strong bounce from March’s nervous test of the last oversold point. The rally launched from the March lows and barely rested or paused. The rally has been … Read more