Above the 40 (March 22, 2017) – A Bear Pause Before D.C. Puts Its First Official Stamp On the Trump Rally

AT40 = 35.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The sellers did their best to create follow-through selling to the previous day’s bearish breakdown. As has been the case … Read more

Above the 40 (March 10, 2017) – A Stock Market Redressing Itself for A Meeting with the Fed

AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The February U.S. jobs report catalyzed the next swing in the stock market’s bear-bull knife fight. I noted in my … Read more

Above the 40 (March 9, 2017) – The Stock Market Hits A New Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.3 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary From a technical perspective, my last “Above the 40” post made as detailed a case as I can make to … Read more

Above the 40 (March 7, 2017) – A Growing Undertow for the Stock Market

AT40 = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 63.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Market weakness continued to grow today even as the major indices barely notched losses on the day. AT40 (T2108), the … Read more

Above the 40 (March 6, 2017) – SNAP to Reality

AT40 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 65.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.2 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Here we go again. Divergence is rearing its head again and bringing a dose of reality to the setup for … Read more

Above the 40 (March 3, 2017) – The S&P 500 Marches Confidently Toward the Next Rate Hike

AT40 = 57.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 67.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary So March it is then! In reaction to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at The Executives’ Club of … Read more

Above the 40 (March 2, 2017) – An S&P 500 Attitude Adjustment and A SNAP Judgement

AT40 = 58.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 68.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary And this is why I appreciate hedging…and using Caterpillar (CAT) as my most common hedge was particularly fortuitous today. On … Read more

The Turkish Lira’s Comeback Slams Into Emerging Market Weakness

When I last wrote about the Turkish lira in mid-January, USD/TRY had pulled back sharply off a parabolic run-up. The iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) was also at the beginning of a dramatic bottoming pattern that was later confirmed with a close above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com When the Central Bank of the … Read more

Above the 40 (February 27, 2017) – The S&P 500 Coiled In Anticipation

AT40 Status: 63.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 70.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 12.1 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last “Above the 40” post, I noted that the rejection of AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading … Read more

Above the 40 (February 17, 2017) – The S&P 500’s Stubborn Determination

AT40 Status: 64.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 70.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 11.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) stumbled out the gate and struggled in slightly negative territory for much of the day. A … Read more