ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week, I switched from neutral for the first time in, I believe, months. I downgraded to “cautiously bearish” because … Read more
A week ago, I laid out a game plan for playing Tesla (TSLA) earnings on January 29th based on a belief that the market was under-pricing TSLA call options. At the time, TSLA’s stock price sat at $510.50, and options priced in a +/- 10% gain for TSLA on January 31st. The week opened (on … Read more
Tesla (TSLA) has been on a tear. Analyst Expectations Analysts have stumbled over themselves to hike price targets: Canaccord Genuity from $375 to $515, Piper Sandler from $423 to $553, Oppenheimer from $385 to $612, and Jeffries from $400 to $600. At least three analysts have staunchly defended their bearishness: Credit Suisse reluctantly hiked its … Read more
AT40 = 57.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market seems to be on a slow and steady march toward Christmas. The current bearish divergence and an exceptionally low volatility … Read more
AT40 = 59.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (see below) Stock Market Commentary A Sufficient Resolution I still harbor lingering skepticism, but the S&P 500’s recovery from the last hiccup and its subsequent slow … Read more
AT40 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 49.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.3Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary No Resolution The stock market did little to resolve my lingering skepticism over the meaningfulness of the “Phase One” or partial Trade … Read more
On January 22, 2018, the iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB) closed at $46.25, a more than 10-year high. In just two and a half weeks, ITB lost 15.0% and did not bottom until the Christmas Eve market bottom at $28.55. Almost 10 months later, investors have almost reversed this entire loss – just … Read more
AT40 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Re-Entry Two Fridays ago, buyers took the S&P 500 (SPY) back above its 50-day moving average (DMA). It was yet … Read more
While the market was going wild buying call options in Toll Brothers (TOL), insiders were selling large quantities of shares. SEC filings reveal almost $2.8M in share sales. Here is a summary with emphasis on the CEO and President (note I mainly care about the sales transactions of C-level executives and SVPs and not board … Read more
The Pairs Trade Exactly one month ago, I pointed to a pairs trade using put options in Toll Brothers (TOL) and call options on the iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB). Home builders selling affordable and otherwise lower-priced homes were rapidly gaining favor. Toll Brothers, a builder of luxury, high-end homes, was greatly under-performing … Read more