Part Optimism, Part Skepticism from A Partial Trade Deal – Above the 40 (October 11, 2019)

AT40 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Re-Entry Two Fridays ago, buyers took the S&P 500 (SPY) back above its 50-day moving average (DMA). It was yet … Read more

One-Third of the Way to An Average October Drawdown – Above the 40 (October 1, 2019)

AT40 = 51.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 18.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary The Big Question: Another Q4 Sell-Off? “Last year can’t happen because of last year” Tim Seymour, CNBC’s Fast Money, October 1, 2019 … Read more

Small Caps Answer the Call: Overbought Trading Conditions Now Approach – Above the 40 (September 10, 2019)

The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) has surged through 200 and 50DMA resistance in a high-volume breakout move.

AT40 = 62.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (finished reversing all of August’s decline)VIX = 15.2Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Role reversal While the S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (COMPQX) continue to fail at confirming … Read more

A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

Overbought Conditions Remain Elusive As Market Wavers Ahead of the Fed – Above the 40 (July 19, 2019)

AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = ~52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the S&P 500 (SPY) made a new all-time, and I was expecting a trip into overbought conditions. AT40 … Read more