ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (see caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Presidential Decrees “Q Six hundred and twenty-three points — that’s what the Dow was down today … Read more
Overall Assessment I am bullish on Meritage Homes (MTH). Both the fundamentals and the technicals on the company and stock look good even following the strong performance this year and following the last earnings report. I am very late on digging into Meritage’s latest story despite pointing out the stock’s strength several times over the … Read more
The grind played out for about 5 months – including a sell-off in June ahead of earnings. Now, KB Home (KBH) finally managed to break out to a new high for the year. KB Home (KBH) finally joined the growing list of home builders breaking to prices last seen last year and earlier. KBH is … Read more
With just one day to go until expiration of the short side, my Aug/Oct $39 calendar call spread on the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its initial profit target. I was hoping the short side would expire worthless, and I could ride the long side expiring in October into the launch … Read more
My last pairs trade going long Redfin (RDFN) calls versus long Zillow Group (Z) (ZG) put options did not work out as I over-extended my stay on RDFN. A fresh opportunity for a pairs trade has arrived with RDFN neatly testing key support after reversing most of its post-earnings gains and with Zillow Group in … Read more
Overall Assessment I am cautiously bullish on M/I Homes (MHO) which means I want to buy the stock on dips. The company’s Q2 2019 earnings report demonstrated strong growth amid record financial performance. The homebuilder is benefiting from the increasing popularity of lower-priced homes as first-time home buyers look for affordable housing amid a scramble … Read more
AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more
Overall Assessment I am neutral on KB Home (KBH). The company’s Q2 2019 earnings report offered just enough to erase the negativity going into earnings but offered nothing to ignite renewed upward momentum. The company talked a great game with a lot of bullish commentary but the actual numbers and metrics belie the headlines. KB … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In the last Housing Market Review, I pointed out how the stocks of home builders were still making a surprising push against the expected seasonal top in their shares. Yet, I still expected iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) to remain constrained to a pivot around its 50-day moving average (DMA). Soon … Read more
Two weeks ago I threw up a chart of Realogy (RLGY) just to have something bearish to show among a group of bullish charts. I wondered why this company of real estate agents and brokers was in a persistent decline while housing-related stocks were generally holding up well. On July 23, Realogy rolled out what … Read more