Above the 40 (February 1, 2019) – An Overbought Stock Market Aspires to Test 200DMA Resistance

AT40 = 83.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th overbought day)AT200 = 34.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-month high)VIX = 16.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Starting in November or so, I developed an expectation for a January sell-off based in anticipation of earnings warnings … Read more

Above the 40 (January 25, 2019) – Stock Market Completes A 1-Week Roundtrip Back to Overbought

AT40 = 76.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st overbought day)AT200 = 28.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-month high)VIX = 17.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary It was just a week ago when the stock market surged to overbought levels in a bullish move. AT40 … Read more

Above the 40 (January 22, 2019) – Overbought Conditions Abruptly End In A Flurry of Tests of Support

AT40 = 66.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 1-day overperiod)AT200 = 24.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 20.8Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Days like these remind me of the importance of technicals. Just one trading day after surging into overbought trading territory, the stock … Read more

Above the 40 (January 18, 2019) – Index Breakouts Propel the Stock Market Into Overbought Territory

AT40 = 76.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day overbought)AT200 = 27.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (6-week high)VIX = 17.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I noted in my last post that the signs of exhaustion in the major indices gave way to more … Read more

Above the 40 (January 16, 2019) – Financials and Small Caps Pushing Market the Last Mile to Overbought

AT40 = 61.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (near 5-month high)AT200 = 23.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (1-month high)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The signs of exhaustion in the major indices have given way to more and more breakouts. Most importantly, AT40 … Read more

Above the 40 (January 4, 2019) – The Oversold Chronicles End As A Fed-Inspired Stock Market Explodes Higher

AT40 = 20.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 13 days in oversold territory)AT200 = 14.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 21.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary All oversold periods must end – it is just a matter of how and … Read more

Above the 40 (December 28, 2018) – A Day of Relative Rest as the Stock Market Limps Away from 2018

AT40 = 8.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #10)AT200 = 11.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 28.3Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Trading is finally calming down a bit. From its high of the day to its low of the day, the S&P 500 … Read more

Above the 40 (December 26, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Stock Market Delivers Major Reprieve for the Post-Trump Reversal

AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more

Above the 40 (December 24, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: An Epic Reversal, Historic Depths, and an End to Hubris

AT40 = 3.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #7, 10-year low!)AT200 = 8.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (9 1/2- year low!)VIX = 36.1 (1-day gain of 20.0%, 10 1/2- month high)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (oh so many caveats below!) Commentary Although it’s been … Read more

Above the 40 (December 19, 2018) – A Fed Undeterred Is A Stock Market Not Yet Low Enough

AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #4)AT200 = 14.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 34-month low)VIX = 25.6 (no change!)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) Commentary On Tuesday night, basketball great LeBron James, now of the Los Angeles Lakers, experienced an … Read more