ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Overhead resistance once prevailed over expanding market breadth, particularly over the past two trading sessions. The dominant headline was Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s warning about the difficult scenario facing the Fed due to tariffs. I interpreted his message as an intention to avoid responding as long as possible. For a market pricing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The tariff rumors proved true after all. The green shoots of Monday that grew alongside the rumor of a pause presaged Wednesday’s massive relief from a real blink on tariffs. Those historic gains were large enough to generate a strong week broadly across the stock market. Still, as more blinking and backing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary And so a bear market ends, for the S&P 500 at least. The stock market enjoyed a strong follow-through day supported by previous oversold conditions. To represent the most recent technical developments, I created a well-defined area for the bear market called the “area of agitation”. The S&P 500’s breakout above this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The market delivered a contradictory signal to end the week. For example, while swingtradebot flashed very bullish technical indicators, market breadth declined the last two days of the week. This divergence is symbolic of the swirling tensions in the air. After, the three-week sell-off into a bear market took advantage of rising … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The case for a sustainable low—but not necessarily a bottom—continues to develop. Today’s catalyst came from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who breathed more life into market breadth. Market breadth continued its steady expansion. Over the past three of four trading days, there has been clear expansion in breadth, now reaching a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market saw a cool and strong follow-through day, reinforcing the potential for a sustainable low (NOT a bottom). Based on changes in market breadth, I discussed the potential for a sustainable low in “FINALLY, Some Convincing Bear Market Relief – The Market Breadth“. A flip in the short-term trends for … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There is no support in a bear market. The market is extremely volatile, and conditions are changing daily. The market is showing clear signs of weakness, with all major trends pointing downward. The mixed messages from yesterday (Thursday) are converging more clearly on the messages of a bear market. The long-term, mid-term, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market presented mixed messages amidst ongoing volatility. While a “softer than expected” CPI report presumably triggered an initial fragile rebound, I see persistent underlying weakness. Apple Inc. (AAPL) represents this fragility with a continued bearish breakdown casting a shadow over the broader market. Apple Inc. (AAPL) declined 1.8% and confirmed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The current administration’s policy of long-term growth through short-term pain in the form of austerity came into clear focus last week. I earlier introduced this concept in “Growth Scare or Overreaction – An Oversold Market or Something Worse?“. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out the strategy in detailed economic … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market looked ready to follow through on leaving its troubles behind. The S&P 500 even made a new all-time high. Everything seemed to fall apart on Friday. The final release of consumer expectations as measured by the University Michigan confirmed earlier preliminary numbers: inflation expectations soared and consumer sentiment tanked. … Read more