ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Another Presidential-level scandal has engulfed Brazil. On the morning of Thursday, May 18th, news hit the wires that Brazilian President Michel Temer was accused of bribery. The crisis deepened after Brazil’s Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for an investigation into the bribery allegations From Reuters: “Brazil’s President Michel Temer on Thursday defiantly said he would … Read more
Almost two months ago, I explained my decision to sell my position in iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ). I also pointed to a 20% correction as the next time I will consider buying again. Since then, EWZ rallied, dipped slightly to a lower low, and then resumed its current rally. That rally accelerated a bit … Read more
Back in October, 2009 When Brazil won the 2016 Summer Olympics, I heralded the news as an opportunity to invest in a country that promised to grow faster than the United States. The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ) never quite matched its peak from 2008 but managed to ride the wave of a post-recession, commodity … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 3, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) reported earnings last week on the morning of October 29, 2015. {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com From my perspective, the always colorful commentary from Chairman, President, and CEO Lourenco … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) has fallen rapidly from a 16-month high to a retest of 2014 lows in just seven weeks. The 27% loss over this timespan represents … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, I demonstrated how the timing of QE2 provided a useful reference point for buying Freeport-McMoran (FCX) as part of a coming revision of the commodity crash playbook. In this … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodity stocks have generally underperformed the stock market in 2012. I still cannot decide whether this weakness represents a leading indicator of broader weakness to come or a fortuitous relief to … Read more
This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In my last post updating the current list of buy candidates for the “commodity crash” portfolio, I neglected to include fertilizer stocks. Phosphate and potash producers – like Mosaic (MOS), Potash … Read more
This post is a very belated acknowledgement that EWZ (iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF) triggered the 20% rule again. As a reminder, (with a few exceptions) I have been buying EWZ whenever it trades 20% of its recent highs. For example, this rule triggered a purchase in early August; see “Commodities Crash’ Triggers First … Read more
This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodities across the board have suffered mightily during the stock market’s recent correction. In the first phase of the sell-off (from late July to early August), a few commodity-related stocks triggered buys by erasing all … Read more