ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 90.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (overbought 13 of last 14 trading days)AT200 = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (highest since February 26, 2020)VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The on-going recovery in the stock market … Read more
AT40 = 21.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2nd day outside oversold conditions)AT200 = 10.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 40.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “Swift and sweeping fiscal and monetary policy responses from U.S. officials will ultimately support stock prices from … Read more
AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more
“…note that the bond market went parabolic last week; iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) soared 5.2% alone on Friday. Parabolic run-ups are built NOT to last. The ironic next move will be for bond yields to soar on inflationary expectations from super-easy monetary policies and super-stimulative, turbo boosted fiscal policies with debts … Read more
This week’s market crash and subsequent sharp rebound revealed some key divergences among housing-related stocks. While one more home builder made it to my “do not touch” list, I see even more opportunities. Opportunities iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) To start the week, the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction … Read more
The race to zero interest rate policies (ZIRPs) is reaching a climax. Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia On March 3, 2020, The Reserve Bank of Australia dropped its key interest rate 25 basis points (bps) from 0.75% to 0.5%, an all-time low for Australia. In doing so the RBA proclaimed the following in its statement: … Read more
AT40 = 21.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Synchronized breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) looked like an extreme day of selling. The follow-up was even more spectacular. … Read more
AT40 = 45.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary I am so accustomed to the stock market’s resilience that I am already looking ahead to the rebound scenarios from … Read more
The seasonally strong period for home builders begins in November. For this period, home builders tend to outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) which is also in its own period of seasonal strength. So far, home builders have lagged significantly in what I continue to call the moment of truth for home builders. Since November, the … Read more
AT40 = 48.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 50.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0 (up 7.0% and went as high as 18.0)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary It was fun for the short time it lasted. The speculative turn in the stock … Read more