A Triumph of Liquidity: New Overbought Period for Stocks Despite Political Chaos

Stock Market Commentary One hundred and fifty minutes. The bearish signal that hit the stock market after the last overbought period ended essentially lasted just 150 minutes. Buyers stepped into the market on Monday after lunchtime on the East Coast and essentially barely took a pause until the last 2 hours of trading today (Wednesday, … Read more

Panic Buying, Catch-Up Trades Further Extend Overbought Stock Market – Above the 40 (June 5, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 90.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (overbought 13 of last 14 trading days)AT200 = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (highest since February 26, 2020)VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The on-going recovery in the stock market … Read more

Stock Market Holds Tenuous Breakout from Oversold Conditions – Above the 40 (April 15, 2020)

AT40 = 21.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2nd day outside oversold conditions)AT200 = 10.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 40.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “Swift and sweeping fiscal and monetary policy responses from U.S. officials will ultimately support stock prices from … Read more

Green Shoots Push Into the Next Downtrend Threatening to Trample Stocks – Above the 40 (March 27, 2020)

AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more

Hard Lessons Of Parabolic Price Action: When Bonds Became Unsafe

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) almost finished reversing all of its parabolic move with a 2.3% loss.

“…note that the bond market went parabolic last week; iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) soared 5.2% alone on Friday. Parabolic run-ups are built NOT to last. The ironic next move will be for bond yields to soar on inflationary expectations from super-easy monetary policies and super-stimulative, turbo boosted fiscal policies with debts … Read more