ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) is a key driver of the stock market’s most predictable pattern. The index’s relentless rise this year has held the majority of the trading action above the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line in the chart below). Brief dips below the 20DMA set up tests of the … Read more
Apple Dividing Rally from Churn The latest cycle of the Apple Trading Model (ATM) happened between a legal setback for Apple and a product launch event. The week began somewhat hopeful with a small gain. Sellers ended the prospects for the Apple trade by fading the product announcement with a 1.0% loss and a close … Read more
One of the great features of options trading is the protection it offers against large absolute losses from surprise gaps in price from the underlying stock. That protection came in handy when casino and hotel company Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) gapped down following news of a fresh regulatory crackdown in Macau, China. WYNN gapped down … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The weight of deteriorating market breadth was undermining the stock market even as on-going rotations kept the indices floating higher. Last week, the tone made one of those periodic, yet still small, shifts. When news broke that Epic Games won a key provision of its lawsuit against Apple and its Apple Store, … Read more
{revised August, 2024} The Most Dangerous Months The stock market’s most dangerous months are August, September, and October. Since 1951, the S&P 500 (SPY) has suffered its three highest average maximum drawdowns in these months. A drawdown occurs when sellers put downward pressure on prices. The maximum drawdown is the largest (most negative) such loss … Read more
Stock Market Commentary August was a breeze, and the stock market strolled in September. A few pebbles rolled into the path this week. The indices delivered divergent behavior which brings up familiar themes of rotation. Most notably, the rotations pressured market breadth as small caps in particular displayed fresh signs of weakness. The Stock Market … Read more
Overall Assessment I am bullish on Tri Pointe Homes (TPH). The Tri Pointe Homes Q2 2021 earnings report delivered strong results, including records for home sales revenue, pre-tax profit, and the value of the backlog. Management reported familiar themes of strong demand and constrained inventories across demographics and geographies. Margins improved as the company once … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market breezed through August and now strolls into September. The S&P 500 breezed to a 2.9% gain for the month of August, its seventh month in a row of gains. The NASDAQ breezed even higher with a 4.0% gain for August. The stroll into September ignored the disappointment in the … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Despite more evidence of slowing conditions in the housing market, home builder stocks remained relatively resilient in August. The underlying dynamics of demand remain in place even as housing prices remain lofty and continue to conjure up images of a housing bubble for market commentators and pundits. A supportive Federal … Read more
The Follow-Through: Strong Start for Stocks The month of September enjoyed a strong start as last week’s fairy dust from J-Pow continued to work its magic. Short-term market breadth with AT50, the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs), also continuing higher while leaving behind the longer-term breadth indicator in AT200, the … Read more