ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: I will not attempt to back my way into an explanation for today’s impressive rally in the stock market. Maybe the surge is another classic bear market relief rally. Maybe the relief fuel symbolizes a market finally ready to leave a bottom behind. Time will tell. What IS clear is that the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I gave the summary for the week in my last “Market Breadth” post. I will just add here that the stock charts are full of images of a stock market running low on fuel. I tell just a small part of the narrative below. Stock Chart Reviews – Below the 50-day moving … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The fresh sag in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ makes the stock market look like it is running low on fuel. The damage is timely just ahead of the next meeting of the Federal Reserve. In these circumstances, I would expect the Fed to deliver soothing words to the stock market … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created massive human misery and a historic press of global economic sanctions. With war comes scarcity and the allocation of resources to destroying the resources of others. Financial markets are scrambling to adjust to the new global wartime economy. These charts are just a snapshot of some … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I discussed the prospects for the impact of higher interest rates. I concluded there could be little impact on prices. Those dynamics could soon be overshadowed by the impacts of a global economic war and the declining sentiment that comes from watching the misery … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market held up surprisingly well last week given the intensifying Russian assault on Ukraine and the accelerating economic sanctions pressing upon Russia. Yet, similar to my concerns for the suffering Ukrainian people, I have increasing doubts that this market “stasis” can last much longer. Specifically, the downtrending 20-day moving averages … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Trading with on-going headline risk is difficult for bulls and bears. I find it useful to pick a narrative, pick an anchor, and stay as disciplined as possible. My foundation remains with the principles of trading contrary to extremes. Last week, the market tested the extremes of oversold trading conditions and survived … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: When Russia launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine, financial markets took heavy hits. Overnight, I anticipated a drop into oversold trading conditions for the U.S. stock market. Those oversold trading conditions were surprisingly and exceptionally brief. The major indices gapped down well below their lower Bollinger Bands (BB), and I waited … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: A divergence still exists between the anxiety in financial markets and market breadth, but that divergence is no longer so promising. Sellers rushed into the close as rumblings rolled of an escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. After Putin followed through with a nighttime strike against Ukraine, stock market futures sold off sharply. … Read more
The news headlines rang out today that Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin gave the orders to send “peacekeeping” troops into two breakaway regions of Ukraine. Stock market futures reacted instantly. Yahoo had a particularly dramatic headline declaring that futures “tanked.” Reflexively, I checked CNBC to review the preliminary damage: S&P futures down 1.8% and the NASDAQ … Read more