ONE-TWENTY TWO - A collection of personal articles on financial markets including analysis you can use
Jul
13

A Stubbornly Strong Australian Dollar Introduces A Risk Factor into Economic Forecasts

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 26, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) recently released its Resources and Energy quarterly for the June, 2014 quarter containing a notably more cautious tone toward the Australian dollar (FXA) […]

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Jul
13

Plunge In Australia’s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I was just getting accustomed to the idea that iron ore prices could plunge without impacting the Australian dollar (FXA). Now comes a surprisingly large plunge in Australia’s trade balance. On […]

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Jul
13

Glenn Stevens Takes Direct Aim At Market Complacency On the Australian Dollar

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Governor Glenn Stevens of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has finally returned to jawboning as a method for cajoling currency traders to sell the Australian dollar (FXA). On July 3rd, […]

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May
6

Monetary Policy On Cruise Control in Australia

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia seems to have abandoned efforts to push the Australian dollar (FXA) around. The latest monetary decision contained no surprises and looked like a near carbon copy […]

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Apr
1

T2108 Update (April 1, 2014) – A Stubbornly Overbought Market

written by Dr. Duru

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are […]

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Mar
3

Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) So much for a trough in unemployment in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of […]

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Mar
3

All the Reserve Bank of Australia Has Left Is Jawboning

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made it official: the low interest rate cycle has reached a trough. In its latest Monetary Policy Decision on February 4th, the RBA concluded (emphasis […]

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Mar
3

China PMI Fallout Takes Down Australian Dollar Even As Rate Expectations Stay Steady

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It looks like the rate implications of creeping inflation in Australia still outweigh disappointing job news and the latest China PMI reading. The market’s odds for a rate reduction dropped from […]

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Mar
3

Q4 2013 Inflation Reading Removes Australia’s Scope For Lower Rates

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 22, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Remember last September when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) somewhat mysteriously removed the following language from its statement on monetary policy?… “The Board also judged that the inflation outlook, as […]

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Jan
17

Poor Jobs Report Breaks Down Australian Dollar But Is THIS the Trough?

written by Dr. Duru

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a loss of 22,600 jobs for December, 2013 while consensus expectations were for a GAIN of 10,000 jobs. The economy lost 31,600 full-time jobs […]

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