(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.)
Last month, I wrote about the strong sales activity in million dollar plus homes in Canada that are occurring despite poor jobs growth in the country. It was an interesting study in the growing dilemma facing major central banks who have robust housing markets heating up in slow-growth economies. This dilemma is not surfacing in the U.S. as various combinations of deflationary psychology, a cooling in housing sales, and overall housing activity that has still barely lifted off the post-recession bottom exist across many of America’s housing markets. However, the U.S. does have some strong housing markets and home builders are generally trying to focus their businesses on these areas. In at least one of these regions, the greater San Francisco (SF) Bay Area (and the state of California overall), million-dollar plus homes tell a particularly poignant story of how the scales are tipped toward the higher-end of the economic scale.
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The very high-end of the market is enjoying sales records across the board:
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Record high-end sales and soaring rents in the SF Bay Area
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For example, last month, the San Jose Mercury News reported on the “relentless rise” in Bay Area apartment rents. {snip}
Rent pressures across the country
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Source: “The State of the Nation’s Housing 2014“, The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University
Additions to the rental supply have focused on those most able to pay:
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These disparities have created a situation where affordability in the U.S. as a whole has improved for home buyers but not renters. {snip}
SF Bay Area dislocations
For the SF Bay Area these dynamics mean that those workers not enjoying the benefits of the tech-driven boom are making the time-honored trek to move further and further outside the core to find affordable housing and/or find ways to save for a down payment for an eventual home purchase. {snip}
Well-positioned home builders
The upshot of all these housing dynamics is that home builders like KB Home (KBH), Lennar (LEN), and Tri Point Homes (TPH) who have high concentrations of their business in California should continue to see good business in the state, and the SF Bay Area in particular. {snip}
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Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: no positions
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.)