ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary After just acknowledging politics could deliver on-going surprises for traders and investors, both up and down, I certainly did not expect the first day of trading after that post to confirm my assessment. On Sunday, President Biden bowed out the 2024 Presidential campaign and endorsed VP Kamala Harris. The stock market greeted … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The latest overbought period lasted two days, a typical duration. However, the start of the period was atypical given the fuel from historic heroics from small cap stocks. The end of the overbought period was remarkable by delivering some of the clearest topping signals of the year. Key indices that soared into … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s bearish divergence is too strong to ignore. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ achieved all-time highs while market breadth sunk again this week. Both short-term and long-term market breadth indicators are at key support levels. Even if market breadth somehow rebounds from current levels, I find myself getting yet … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week was an intense week of trading. The ever-escalating conflict in the Middle East disturbed markets. However, the initial negative reaction in futures market was mostly erased by the time of the market open on Thursday. The indices even managed to gain ground before getting faded. Thus, the market still fundamentally … Read more
Stock Market Commentary April showers have arrived in the form of stockdrops instead of raindrops. After a near relentless push higher every month since November, the S&P 500 is down 4.4% month-to-date. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have confirmed bearish breakdowns and the ETF of small caps, IWM, is again in a bear … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There is a deepening irony in my on-going bearishness on the stock market. The sector most visibly responsible for the anti-bearish animal spirits leaning against poor market breadth is the same sector I remain unapologetically bullish about: Artificial Intelligence (AI). The ironic contrast was in full display last week as the bullish … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week repeated a familiar story. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed up for the week. Since the October lows, each index has only suffered one down week. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF was part of the party until the calendar flipped to 2024. The ETF of small caps lost altitude … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Bring on the bears…The process terminating a historically extended overbought period started with the first trading day of the year. While the S&P 500 recovered from the year’s initial fit of selling, small caps did not. The sagging fortunes of small caps have now returned the related ETF to bear market territory. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The rally out of the stock market’s last oversold period finally suffered its first strike today as a strong open fizzled into some important fades. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ tapped highs of the year only to fail into marginally negative closes. Most importantly, market breadth perfectly tapped the threshold for … Read more
Stock Market Commentary At the end of September, I asked skeptically whether an oversold bounce could prevent an October swoon. As I suspected at the time, the answer turned out to be no. The market-moving headlines for October have included weighty, tragic, and alarming news making for a demotivating trading environment. An oversold bounce earlier … Read more